Poll: Harper leads, within sight of majority (plus or minus 2.5 martinis)

In a recent poll by Wolfe Analytics (a local polling company created, commissioned and retained exclusively for me personally), the Conservatives are at 38%, the Liberals 33%, the NDP 24%, and the remaining left wing nuts and nation-destroying separatists are split between the Green Party and the Bloc Quebecois.

When these numbers are extrapolated over all the seats at play in this election, the Tories should win a decisive majority, the Liberals will form the official opposition, and “Angry and Stoppin Tom” Mulcair will soon be dropped like a hot poutine and hereafter known as “Tom Who?”

This new polling group, Wolfe Analytics, eschewed the more commonplace modern polling methods, i.e.,those annoying interactive robo calls.

Instead, we assembled a highly inebriated polling sample, up close and personal, in two upscale Toronto bars and one downscale pub.

Since intensive and comprehensive one-on-one interviews were de rigueur, the polling sample was admittedly a little thin, but still very representative of the greater Canadian electorate from Victoria to Peggy’s Cove.

Here are some representative results of the polling sample:

One of the first persons interviewed was Andie, a blonde 30-something inner suburban housewife in North Toronto, who will be voting for Harper because of his tough fiscal policies.

Next came a 30-something Asian woman, also married with child, living in downtown Toronto. Surprisingly, she was also voting for Harper because of his strong fiscal policies, thinks Trudeau is an intellectual lightweight, and identified herself as a proud member of “Ford Nation.”

I next interviewed a Latin American-born 50-something mother and her 30-something daughter. Both will be voting for Harper and ignoring the featherweight pugilist Justin.

I then spent a good deal of time at another restaurant/bar, Kasa Moto, where I interviewed a whole range of men and women. Among this group, Harper won the approval of the majority of the men voting, while Trudeau and Mulcair split the “hot chick” vote fairly evenly.

At the Four Seasons d/bar, I interviewed a group of 20-something hip downtown urban dudes and cool young women. Shockingly, the vote split among this group: Harper 2, Trudeau 2 and Mulcair 1.

Clearly, Harper and the Conservatives are resonating mostly with men, both urban, suburban and rural in Ontario, along with those in have-not Atlantic Eastern provinces. He is also popular with men and women alike in Quebec, the prairie provinces and BC.

Trudeau’s numbers reflect a strong urban base, with pockets of strong Liberal support in downtown Toronto, Montreal,  in the Atlantic provinces and in urban BC.

This unscientific and subjective poll may not be bang on mathematically accurate, but it does provide an interesting snapshot of a downtown Toronto urban/suburban group, who, surprisingly, are strongly in the Harper camp.

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