Predictions revisited — and what’s next for Trump, Bernie and Hillary

As I predicted here in February when Trump won the New Hampshire Republican primary, Trump went on to take the GOP nomination. OK, I also said Bernie Sanders would take down Hillary Clinton before the Democratic convention. But I stand by my belief that Trump will destroy Clinton in the general election for president.

I also have been writing for months that Clinton is “toast.” The polls are finally catching up with me.

After months of head-to-head polls, in which Clinton had a double-digit lead over Trump, a recent Quinnipiac poll had Trump tied with Clinton in the two crucial swing states of Florida and Pennsylvania.

The same poll saw Trump besting Clinton 43-39 in the bell weather state of Ohio. Note that no presidential candidate has won the presidency since 1960 without winning at least two of these three critical states.

Predictably, Clinton’s highly paid spin doctors quickly dismiss this poll as an anomaly, put out by an outlier polling group.

That is, until the following day, when the better-known Reuters-Ipsos group published roughly the same result. But this poll had Trump virtually tied with the stumbling Hillary, nationwide!

But the best poll was yet to come, showing Trump leading by 10 points against Clinton with Hispanics.

According to this poll, Trump’s populist economics, which appeal to working class white Americans, is also resonating with Hispanics who are just as concerned about bread and butter issues. They don’t like the idea of illegal immigrants taking jobs their jobs, either!

Before the New York primary, Trump seemed stuck at under 35 per cent support, among supposedly angry white American working class men and women.

But after New York primary gave Trump a majority, it became clear that his support was widespread and broad-based: Young and senior, women and men, urban and suburban. He garnered support from key Hispanic and ethnic groups as well.

Then Trump won decisive majorities in the nearby northeastern states of New Jersey, Connecticut and Delaware, and beat Cruz for good in the conservative evangelical state of Indiana.

With no remaining opposition, Trump romped to victory in the West Virginia primary.

All this time, Clinton has been stumbling badly.

She is a terrible and unlikable campaigner. The more people see and hear her speak, the more people are turned off.

In March in Ohio, Clinton blundered terribly. In attempt to suck up to climate change eco interests, she bragged insensitively that she would, “put a lot of coal miners and coal businesses out of business.”

Well, in May those comments came back to bite her in the posterior in West Virginia coal country. Sanders beat Clinton badly, while other Democrats crossed party lines to vote for Trump.

Typically, Clinton refused to properly apologize for those comments, citing that they’d been taken “out of context”.

The fact is that for the last few months, Hillary has been getting beaten by a 70-something socialist, forced to fight Sanders from her left and Trump from the right.

The GOP establishment is grudgingly unifying behind Trump because many Republicans hate Hillary more, and his numbers are clearly improving.

My political instincts tell me that even the above polls are behind the curve.

I believe Trump is leading Cinton now by more than 10 points.

And I predict even her last remaining fire wall — that of black men and women — will fall.

Why Twice-Divorced New Yorker Trump Beat Cruz in the Conservative Evangelical State of Indiana

Indiana was supposed to be Ted Cruz’s fire wall. This was the state that was going to stop the Trump train in its tracks, well short of Trump securing a majority of the GOP delegates prior to the convention. A resounding victory in Indiana would have provided Cruz with the opportunity to beat Donald Trump in a contested GOP convention on the second or third ballot.

However, a recent Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll of likely GOP voters in Indiana has Trump beating Cruz handily by 15 points — 49% to 34% — with Kasich coming in third with 13%. (As last night’s actual results in Indiana indicate, the polls were dead on. Trump won with 53% of the vote to Cruz’s 36% and Kasich at a mere 7%. So much for the Cruz/Kasich coalition, and Cruz’s “Hail Mary Pass” of selecting Carly Fiorina as his Vice Presidential running mate.)

But over 50% of the GOP electorate in Indiana are white evangelicals. These are Cruz’s peeps! And Cruz secured the endorsement of conservative GOP governor, Mike Pence, reputedly a hero of the religious right.

Where did Cruz go wrong?

Firstly, Cruz fatally misread the Indiana electorate. In the last few weeks Cruz has been hammering Trump on the basis that Trump is soft on the religious liberty of the Christian right.  In other words, Trump is pro-gay, pro-same sex marriage, and pro-LGBTQ rights (especially the right of transgender people to use the washroom of their choice).

According to Cruz, all these above activities and practices are contrary to the strict Christian right religious principles. And further according to Cruz, Christian-oriented business owners should be not forced to serve gay people, same-sex couples, or those who identify as transgender.

Cruz failed to realize that although Indiana is a conservative state, neither the evangelicals nor the Tea Party types have significant influence over Indiana politics. The ideology of Indiana Republicans is more Main Street values, small business, and small conservative government, without the emphasis on social conservative values.

Secondly, the evangelical voters in Indiana appear to be choosing Trump over Cruz or Kasich on economic and national security issues, as the GOP evangelicals did in Mississippi where 84% of the GOP voters self-identified as evangelicals. In that primary, Trump won 48% to 39% of the evangelicals. (Trump also beat Cruz among evangelicals in South Carolina, by 33% to 27%)

Note even Indiana Governor Pence’s endorsement of Cruz appears lukewarm. In the same public announcement, Pence praised Trump. He stated, “I particularly want to commend Donald Trump, who I think has given voice to the frustration of millions of working Americans with a lack of progress in Washington, D.C. And I’m also particularly grateful that Donald Trump has taken a strong stand for Hoosier jobs when we saw jobs in the Carrier company abruptly announce leaving Indiana not for another state but for Mexico.” He continued, “I’m grateful for his voice in the national debate.”

Frankly, that was one of the strongest, most thoughtful, and most genuine comments in favour of Trump by any government official during these primaries.

Thirdly, Cruz’s coalition gambit with Kasich, I believe, has also hurt the Cruz campaign in Indiana.

A recent poll concludes about 60% of the Indiana voters were opposed to the Cruz/Kasich coalition, in which Kasich was not to vigorously campaign in Indiana thus encouraging Kasich supporters to back Cruz. Except Kasich supporters are sticking with Kasich (note his 13% support in the WSJ/NBC poll).

I believe that Indiana voters are rejecting Cruz in part because this ridiculous failed coalition reeks of sleazy backroom politics, lacking in principles and integrity with the sole goal of stopping Trump and not advancing any policies of interest to Indiana voters.

Lastly, for those Trump critics who are still deluded into thinking that Trump is a buffoon and a joke, he is on the brink of pulling off an incredible political upset. He beat Cruz in the heart of socially conservative, evangelical Indiana by being his own guy and sticking to his very strong economic message in favour of hard-working and middle-income groups, while still supporting gender and sexual equality. Note Trump has specifically not pandered to the extreme right-wing social conservatives of the GOP.

Accordingly, unlike Romney before him, Trump will be able to pivot to the centre, without social conservative baggage and take on Hillary where she is weakest: on improving the economy for the working-class and middle-income groups.

Hillary, you should be scared. Be very scared of The Donald.

Trump crushes crazy Kasich-Cruz coalition

Donald Trump has just experienced his most super of Super Tuesdays. On Tuesday night, he crushed his opponents — the smarmy Cruz and the inept Kasich — by overwhelming margins in Pennsylvania, Delaware, Maryland, Connecticut and Rhode Island.

To date Trump has secured 988 pledged delegates. His magic number now is 249. (He needs 1237 delegates to win the Republican nomination).

Trump is expected to win handily in such upcoming states as New Jersey, West Virginia and California.

The very liberal CNN, clearly no supporter of Trump, believes he will lock up the nomination in California, well before the GOP convention.

In other words, there will be no contested GOP convention, where the establishment Republican forces, in cahoots with the once reviled Cruz, would have used sleazy back room tricks to frustrate the democratic wishes of millions of primary voters.

Most establishment political pundits at the Washington Post, New York Times, the Weekly Standard, CNN and Fox News have been saying ad nauseam that Trump will lose out to Cruz or some other establishment figure in a contested convention.

So what has changed in the last two weeks?

Well, Trump got his mojo back. He killed his opponents last Tuesday in his home state of New York, winning by healthy majorities throughout the state.

Then Trump took on the ridiculous attempt by Cruz and Kasich to gang up against him. Trump publicly lambasted his opponents for “colluding” together, a word that implies illegality. This was a typically over the top Trumpian attack, but effective nonetheless.

Trump also pointed out that such coalitions are terrible ideas both politically and optically. For liberal-oriented Kasich to jump in bed with extremely right wing Cruz, Trump insisted, demonstrates that neither man has any principles.

When reporters questioned Kasich about the coalition, Kasich tried lamely to pass off this major political development as “no big deal,” and just a way to conserve his resources.

Say what? By telling his liberal supporters in Indiana and in Los Angeles to support the viciously right wing Cruz? Has Kasich gone completely nuts?

Then Kasich backtracked and encouraged his supporters to vote for him in Indiana after all. That will split the anti-Trump vote and definitely ensure a Trump victory in the Hoosier state.

Months ago, my political instincts suggested Trump would take the GOP primaries. Now the hard and cold numbers  support this view.

Attawapiskat is Not a Native Indian Reserve – It’s a Death Cult

I was never a big fan of former three term Liberal prime minister Jean Chretien, but I must doff my frayed chapeau to this straight-talking dude. Chretien’s solution to this horribly dysfunctional Cree reserve is to encourage its inhabitants to get the hell out of dodge. Or more appropriately, leave this extremely isolated community on the west coast of James Bay and head for a more metropolitan centre, i.e. the city of Timmins about 500 kilometres south of Attawapiskat.

The implication is that this reserve is done like dinner. No amount of combined federal and provincial support can revive this place. No amount of hard-earned Canadian taxpayers’ money can solve the fundamental problems within this isolated reserve. No amount of bleeding heart provincial and federal liberals beating their breasts can turn this situation around. This reserve is doomed to disease, suicide and death. Period.

As Chretien wisely noted referring to this situation, cutting through the political BS and political correctness, “there is no economic base there for having jobs and so on, and sometimes they have to move, like anybody else”.

Chretien is no “Jean-come-lately” to this file. Back in the day, he was Minister of Indian Affairs and Northern Development from 1968-1974 in the Pierre Trudeau cabinet. While Prime Minister in the mid nineties, his government was faced with its own Attawapiskat-like disaster. It was called the Davis Inlet Innu reserve in Labrador.

Attawapiskat in 2016 is reminiscent of Davis Inlet in 1993 – the same sad and tragic story.

Prior to the relocation of all the 500 Davis Inlet residents, six Innu youths, aged 11-14 were caught on video, attempting suicide by sniffing gasoline fumes. According to the then CBC report, many children, some as young as six months, were neglected by parents too drunk to care. The majority of these children suffered from tuberculosis and skin infections caused by poor hygiene.

95% of the adult population suffered from alcoholism.

In 1993, 25% of the population tried to commit suicide. Of the then 360 children (about 10%) some as young as five years old, were “problem sniffers” of gasoline.

As in the Davis Inlet situation, in the last six weeks in Attawapiskat there have been 39 suicide attempts in a community of 2,000 – including 11 attempted suicides in the last week. I suspect these figures are just the tip of the tragic iceberg.

I suspect the number of residents of this community, like in Davis Inlet, who have attempted suicide is much higher.

Also like in Davis Inlet, the children suffer from poor hygiene. And alcoholism, drug abuse, depression and despair are rampant among both young and old residents.

Predictably, Indian officials like Ontario Regional Chief Isadore Day, point their fingers at the federal and provincial government. Of course, these suicides and these multiple problems are a result of that old “go to” scapegoat: “the residential school” system.

Leftist NOW magazine blames this situation on the “usual suspects” of Canadian colonialism and institutional racism.

Of course none of these politically correct native Indian officials or misguided leftists, point their fingers where the fault clearly lay – the Native Indian elders, the chiefs and the adult natives Indians and parents of these children.

All these so-called leaders and adults should be held accountable for their apparent negligence, their carelessness and for their wrong-headed desire to stay attached to a land and to their traditions of hunting and fishing that cannot sustain this isolated community or provide the bare necessities of life to themselves and certainly not to their children, who prefer taking their lives, than living another day in such deplorable conditions.

If this Attawapiskat reserve was instead an extreme Jewish cult in which its children were attempting suicide, the provincial and federal authorities would be all over this place, removing the children to save their lives, and throwing the cult’s leaders in jail.

But because it is 2016, and native Indians appear untouchable, their children are doomed to die early deaths due to our national liberal political correctness. Shame.

“My old Harvard classmate Bill Kristol is disastrously wrong about Trump”

Ever since Donald Trump started winning Republican primaries, Bill Kristol and his fellow travelers on The Weekly Standard have written numerous anti-Trump tirades. But the more they fulminate against Trump, the more Trump keeps winning.

It’s been enormously amusing to watch these GOP fat cat pundits humiliate themselves day after day, week after week.

They don’t get Trump. They don’t understand his populist appeal. They don’t know or understand the millions of average working class Americans who are supporting Trump.

They also don’t realize that their time has passed.

Within a decade they’ve gone from being powerful Bush advisers and neo-confidantes to political dinosaurs.

Instead of focusing his efforts on defeating the scandal-riddled, mendacious Hillary Clinton, Kristol and his right wing lunatic lackeys are trying to devise anti-democratic schemes to wrest the nomination from Trump in a brokered GOP convention.

And if that ridiculous effort fails (ya think?) Kristol says he wants wants to engineer the creation of an independent third-party candidate specifically to hurt Trump’s chances of winning the presidency.

Bill, as your former Harvard classmate, I must confess that I did admire, on occasion, your political courage as a young Republican in a predominantly liberal/democratic Ivy League school.

And since then, you have certainly made a name for yourself an influential conservative pundit and commentator.

But Bill, are you friggin’ nuts?

There is no way in hell that Trump delegates at the GOP convention will leave their man behind after the first ballot and vote for some Washington-based GOP establishment political hack like Paul Ryan or a clueless, politically tone-deaf Mitt Romney parachuted in to supposedly save the day.

Trump’s populist support is rock-solid, primal, visceral and emotional. This support is reminiscent of the rock-solid and immovable support that Rob Ford enjoyed, despite (because of?) the over the top, often irrational media opposition, both nation-wide and world-wide.

Now Kristol has floated the ridiculous trial balloon of encouraging some idiot to run as a independent third party candidate, a la Ross Perot. He approached the clueless former Texas governor Rick Perry, who to his credit turned Kristol down.

Trump has gone on Sunday talk shows and criticized this move as a recipe for GOP disaster and a scheme that will guarantee the election of the hated Hillary.

Fortunately, the Republican National Committee, seeing the writing on the wall, has condemned Kristol’s third party scheme as one that would just help Hillary.

Perhaps Trump supporters should take some comfort that Kristol has had a horrible track record of making disastrous predictions. In 2006, he predicted Barack Obama would lose every primary to Hillary Clinton. In October 2015, he predicted Vice President Biden would jump into the presidential race. Kristol was also convinced in February, 2016, that Rubio would win the New Hampshire.

Kristol also has wrongly predicted on eleven different occasions that Trump had peaked! Yet the Republican establishment in Washington still takes Kristol seriously.

As an anti-establishment shite disturber at heart, I love the sight of puffed up, over-rated, conservative and liberal pundits, being hoist on their own petards.

I predict Trump will be the Republican presidential nominee and he will destroy Hillary in the general election. He will drive a stake into that cold, heartless, conniving, manipulative, untrustworthy woman, once and for all.

Trump more years.

Rob Ford, Rest in Peace, Buddy

I am personally devastated by the sudden death of Rob Ford. About six months ago, I had dinner with Rob at a downtown Italian bistro. At that time Rob appeared happy and optimistic. He had lost some weight.

The cancer appeared in remission or at least appeared- beatable. At dinner, Ford had that political fire in his belly. He was highly critical of the Tory mayoralty and in two years he was going take him on again and win back the mayoralty.

Though the cancer beat Ford today, the cancer will never wipe out the love and affection that many Torontonians had for this man. His strength as a person is that he genuinely cared about people and he sincerely wanted to help them out. Whether it be by fixing the potholes in the neighborhood, ensuring the heat was turned back on in the apartment,  or making sure there was sufficient local police in the area to ensure the safety of the local citizens. The little things that mean a great deal to the average man or woman on the street. Regardless of race, color, creed, gender, ethnicity or religion.

Rob Ford was the consummate retail politician. A true man of the people. And he had great political instincts.

These political traits made him ultimately a very formidable politician. Rob was fiercely supported by a large number of people, from all walks of life, men and women, young and old, old stock Toronto and very visible nonwhite minorities (collectively, Ford Nation) who stuck by him through thick and thick and through all his personal problems. The rock-solid support of his followers never wavered. Never bent. Never collapsed. Even his political foes and media opponents grudgingly acknowledged that fact.

Hey, buddy, the fight is over. You can safely rest in peace. But your indomitable spirit and the many fond memories will always linger on among your many friends and followers.

Mitch Wolfe Recalls With Great Fondness Ford Fest 2014- And the True Face of Ford Nation

Ford Fest 2014 (Scarborough) Major Success- Ford is Back!!!

I attended last year’s 2013 Ford Fest in Scarborough and this one in the summer of 2014 was bigger, more boisterous and the crowd was stronger and more vocal and clearly loyal to their man, Rob Ford. Like last year, I was very impressed with the diversity of support that came out for Ford.

This time about 75% of the 10,000-15,000 in attendance were non white representing all the major communities in this great city of Toronto: the black, Asian, South Asian, Persian, Filippino, South American, Middle Eastern, European, Eastern European communities and many many more.

Young and old. Families, singletons, all ages, all nationalities and even some old stock white Torontonians made the trek to Scarborough, Thompson Park, to have a photo with Ford or just be part of Ford Nation.

In this photo I am with some very impressive hard-working Scarborough women who are fiercely loyal to Rob Ford. They love and respect this man. They told me that he relates to them. They trust him.

They will go to the wall for him. The lovely woman next to me, Georgette, thought so highly of Rob Ford that she named her little boy, the son she is holding, Rob Ford.

The tradition continues.
Fordy More Years!!!
Ford Nation forever!!!