Predictions revisited — and what’s next for Trump, Bernie and Hillary

As I predicted here in February when Trump won the New Hampshire Republican primary, Trump went on to take the GOP nomination. OK, I also said Bernie Sanders would take down Hillary Clinton before the Democratic convention. But I stand by my belief that Trump will destroy Clinton in the general election for president.

I also have been writing for months that Clinton is “toast.” The polls are finally catching up with me.

After months of head-to-head polls, in which Clinton had a double-digit lead over Trump, a recent Quinnipiac poll had Trump tied with Clinton in the two crucial swing states of Florida and Pennsylvania.

The same poll saw Trump besting Clinton 43-39 in the bell weather state of Ohio. Note that no presidential candidate has won the presidency since 1960 without winning at least two of these three critical states.

Predictably, Clinton’s highly paid spin doctors quickly dismiss this poll as an anomaly, put out by an outlier polling group.

That is, until the following day, when the better-known Reuters-Ipsos group published roughly the same result. But this poll had Trump virtually tied with the stumbling Hillary, nationwide!

But the best poll was yet to come, showing Trump leading by 10 points against Clinton with Hispanics.

According to this poll, Trump’s populist economics, which appeal to working class white Americans, is also resonating with Hispanics who are just as concerned about bread and butter issues. They don’t like the idea of illegal immigrants taking jobs their jobs, either!

Before the New York primary, Trump seemed stuck at under 35 per cent support, among supposedly angry white American working class men and women.

But after New York primary gave Trump a majority, it became clear that his support was widespread and broad-based: Young and senior, women and men, urban and suburban. He garnered support from key Hispanic and ethnic groups as well.

Then Trump won decisive majorities in the nearby northeastern states of New Jersey, Connecticut and Delaware, and beat Cruz for good in the conservative evangelical state of Indiana.

With no remaining opposition, Trump romped to victory in the West Virginia primary.

All this time, Clinton has been stumbling badly.

She is a terrible and unlikable campaigner. The more people see and hear her speak, the more people are turned off.

In March in Ohio, Clinton blundered terribly. In attempt to suck up to climate change eco interests, she bragged insensitively that she would, “put a lot of coal miners and coal businesses out of business.”

Well, in May those comments came back to bite her in the posterior in West Virginia coal country. Sanders beat Clinton badly, while other Democrats crossed party lines to vote for Trump.

Typically, Clinton refused to properly apologize for those comments, citing that they’d been taken “out of context”.

The fact is that for the last few months, Hillary has been getting beaten by a 70-something socialist, forced to fight Sanders from her left and Trump from the right.

The GOP establishment is grudgingly unifying behind Trump because many Republicans hate Hillary more, and his numbers are clearly improving.

My political instincts tell me that even the above polls are behind the curve.

I believe Trump is leading Cinton now by more than 10 points.

And I predict even her last remaining fire wall — that of black men and women — will fall.

Why Twice-Divorced New Yorker Trump Beat Cruz in the Conservative Evangelical State of Indiana

Indiana was supposed to be Ted Cruz’s fire wall. This was the state that was going to stop the Trump train in its tracks, well short of Trump securing a majority of the GOP delegates prior to the convention. A resounding victory in Indiana would have provided Cruz with the opportunity to beat Donald Trump in a contested GOP convention on the second or third ballot.

However, a recent Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll of likely GOP voters in Indiana has Trump beating Cruz handily by 15 points — 49% to 34% — with Kasich coming in third with 13%. (As last night’s actual results in Indiana indicate, the polls were dead on. Trump won with 53% of the vote to Cruz’s 36% and Kasich at a mere 7%. So much for the Cruz/Kasich coalition, and Cruz’s “Hail Mary Pass” of selecting Carly Fiorina as his Vice Presidential running mate.)

But over 50% of the GOP electorate in Indiana are white evangelicals. These are Cruz’s peeps! And Cruz secured the endorsement of conservative GOP governor, Mike Pence, reputedly a hero of the religious right.

Where did Cruz go wrong?

Firstly, Cruz fatally misread the Indiana electorate. In the last few weeks Cruz has been hammering Trump on the basis that Trump is soft on the religious liberty of the Christian right.  In other words, Trump is pro-gay, pro-same sex marriage, and pro-LGBTQ rights (especially the right of transgender people to use the washroom of their choice).

According to Cruz, all these above activities and practices are contrary to the strict Christian right religious principles. And further according to Cruz, Christian-oriented business owners should be not forced to serve gay people, same-sex couples, or those who identify as transgender.

Cruz failed to realize that although Indiana is a conservative state, neither the evangelicals nor the Tea Party types have significant influence over Indiana politics. The ideology of Indiana Republicans is more Main Street values, small business, and small conservative government, without the emphasis on social conservative values.

Secondly, the evangelical voters in Indiana appear to be choosing Trump over Cruz or Kasich on economic and national security issues, as the GOP evangelicals did in Mississippi where 84% of the GOP voters self-identified as evangelicals. In that primary, Trump won 48% to 39% of the evangelicals. (Trump also beat Cruz among evangelicals in South Carolina, by 33% to 27%)

Note even Indiana Governor Pence’s endorsement of Cruz appears lukewarm. In the same public announcement, Pence praised Trump. He stated, “I particularly want to commend Donald Trump, who I think has given voice to the frustration of millions of working Americans with a lack of progress in Washington, D.C. And I’m also particularly grateful that Donald Trump has taken a strong stand for Hoosier jobs when we saw jobs in the Carrier company abruptly announce leaving Indiana not for another state but for Mexico.” He continued, “I’m grateful for his voice in the national debate.”

Frankly, that was one of the strongest, most thoughtful, and most genuine comments in favour of Trump by any government official during these primaries.

Thirdly, Cruz’s coalition gambit with Kasich, I believe, has also hurt the Cruz campaign in Indiana.

A recent poll concludes about 60% of the Indiana voters were opposed to the Cruz/Kasich coalition, in which Kasich was not to vigorously campaign in Indiana thus encouraging Kasich supporters to back Cruz. Except Kasich supporters are sticking with Kasich (note his 13% support in the WSJ/NBC poll).

I believe that Indiana voters are rejecting Cruz in part because this ridiculous failed coalition reeks of sleazy backroom politics, lacking in principles and integrity with the sole goal of stopping Trump and not advancing any policies of interest to Indiana voters.

Lastly, for those Trump critics who are still deluded into thinking that Trump is a buffoon and a joke, he is on the brink of pulling off an incredible political upset. He beat Cruz in the heart of socially conservative, evangelical Indiana by being his own guy and sticking to his very strong economic message in favour of hard-working and middle-income groups, while still supporting gender and sexual equality. Note Trump has specifically not pandered to the extreme right-wing social conservatives of the GOP.

Accordingly, unlike Romney before him, Trump will be able to pivot to the centre, without social conservative baggage and take on Hillary where she is weakest: on improving the economy for the working-class and middle-income groups.

Hillary, you should be scared. Be very scared of The Donald.

Trump crushes crazy Kasich-Cruz coalition

Donald Trump has just experienced his most super of Super Tuesdays. On Tuesday night, he crushed his opponents — the smarmy Cruz and the inept Kasich — by overwhelming margins in Pennsylvania, Delaware, Maryland, Connecticut and Rhode Island.

To date Trump has secured 988 pledged delegates. His magic number now is 249. (He needs 1237 delegates to win the Republican nomination).

Trump is expected to win handily in such upcoming states as New Jersey, West Virginia and California.

The very liberal CNN, clearly no supporter of Trump, believes he will lock up the nomination in California, well before the GOP convention.

In other words, there will be no contested GOP convention, where the establishment Republican forces, in cahoots with the once reviled Cruz, would have used sleazy back room tricks to frustrate the democratic wishes of millions of primary voters.

Most establishment political pundits at the Washington Post, New York Times, the Weekly Standard, CNN and Fox News have been saying ad nauseam that Trump will lose out to Cruz or some other establishment figure in a contested convention.

So what has changed in the last two weeks?

Well, Trump got his mojo back. He killed his opponents last Tuesday in his home state of New York, winning by healthy majorities throughout the state.

Then Trump took on the ridiculous attempt by Cruz and Kasich to gang up against him. Trump publicly lambasted his opponents for “colluding” together, a word that implies illegality. This was a typically over the top Trumpian attack, but effective nonetheless.

Trump also pointed out that such coalitions are terrible ideas both politically and optically. For liberal-oriented Kasich to jump in bed with extremely right wing Cruz, Trump insisted, demonstrates that neither man has any principles.

When reporters questioned Kasich about the coalition, Kasich tried lamely to pass off this major political development as “no big deal,” and just a way to conserve his resources.

Say what? By telling his liberal supporters in Indiana and in Los Angeles to support the viciously right wing Cruz? Has Kasich gone completely nuts?

Then Kasich backtracked and encouraged his supporters to vote for him in Indiana after all. That will split the anti-Trump vote and definitely ensure a Trump victory in the Hoosier state.

Months ago, my political instincts suggested Trump would take the GOP primaries. Now the hard and cold numbers  support this view.

“My old Harvard classmate Bill Kristol is disastrously wrong about Trump”

Ever since Donald Trump started winning Republican primaries, Bill Kristol and his fellow travelers on The Weekly Standard have written numerous anti-Trump tirades. But the more they fulminate against Trump, the more Trump keeps winning.

It’s been enormously amusing to watch these GOP fat cat pundits humiliate themselves day after day, week after week.

They don’t get Trump. They don’t understand his populist appeal. They don’t know or understand the millions of average working class Americans who are supporting Trump.

They also don’t realize that their time has passed.

Within a decade they’ve gone from being powerful Bush advisers and neo-confidantes to political dinosaurs.

Instead of focusing his efforts on defeating the scandal-riddled, mendacious Hillary Clinton, Kristol and his right wing lunatic lackeys are trying to devise anti-democratic schemes to wrest the nomination from Trump in a brokered GOP convention.

And if that ridiculous effort fails (ya think?) Kristol says he wants wants to engineer the creation of an independent third-party candidate specifically to hurt Trump’s chances of winning the presidency.

Bill, as your former Harvard classmate, I must confess that I did admire, on occasion, your political courage as a young Republican in a predominantly liberal/democratic Ivy League school.

And since then, you have certainly made a name for yourself an influential conservative pundit and commentator.

But Bill, are you friggin’ nuts?

There is no way in hell that Trump delegates at the GOP convention will leave their man behind after the first ballot and vote for some Washington-based GOP establishment political hack like Paul Ryan or a clueless, politically tone-deaf Mitt Romney parachuted in to supposedly save the day.

Trump’s populist support is rock-solid, primal, visceral and emotional. This support is reminiscent of the rock-solid and immovable support that Rob Ford enjoyed, despite (because of?) the over the top, often irrational media opposition, both nation-wide and world-wide.

Now Kristol has floated the ridiculous trial balloon of encouraging some idiot to run as a independent third party candidate, a la Ross Perot. He approached the clueless former Texas governor Rick Perry, who to his credit turned Kristol down.

Trump has gone on Sunday talk shows and criticized this move as a recipe for GOP disaster and a scheme that will guarantee the election of the hated Hillary.

Fortunately, the Republican National Committee, seeing the writing on the wall, has condemned Kristol’s third party scheme as one that would just help Hillary.

Perhaps Trump supporters should take some comfort that Kristol has had a horrible track record of making disastrous predictions. In 2006, he predicted Barack Obama would lose every primary to Hillary Clinton. In October 2015, he predicted Vice President Biden would jump into the presidential race. Kristol was also convinced in February, 2016, that Rubio would win the New Hampshire.

Kristol also has wrongly predicted on eleven different occasions that Trump had peaked! Yet the Republican establishment in Washington still takes Kristol seriously.

As an anti-establishment shite disturber at heart, I love the sight of puffed up, over-rated, conservative and liberal pundits, being hoist on their own petards.

I predict Trump will be the Republican presidential nominee and he will destroy Hillary in the general election. He will drive a stake into that cold, heartless, conniving, manipulative, untrustworthy woman, once and for all.

Trump more years.

Violent Leftist Agitators Prevent Trump from Speaking in Chicago

How are violent agitators bent on preventing Donald Trump from speaking at a peaceful rally in Chicago, Trump’s fault?

Simple answer, this is not Trump’s fault.

Let’s cut to the chase.

The fault lies with those violent agitators who publicly stated that they wanted to shut the Trump speech and rally down. These violent persons, and I would not even honor them by calling them protesters, clearly identified themselves as Bernie Sanders’ supporters and Clinton supporters. In other words, they are leftists and Democratic supporters.

But of course, the liberal media and Trump haters will blame Trump for the actions of these people, who believe that they and they alone, have the democratic and constitutional right to freedom of expression and freedom of assembly. But any person or group, who does not share their views or espouse views that they oppose, these agitators believe that “those others” do not possess and deserve similar democratic and constitutional rights.

Interestingly,  this violent shut down of a peaceful Trump rally played out in Chicago. And it is not a stretch to suggest that the perpetrators of these violent, undemocratic actions were also staunch supporters of President Obama.

Accordingly, they are the face of the Age of Obama, which fortunately is coming to a close.

This is a President who campaigned on bringing the various groups of American society together.

But, Obama, during his two terms, subtly stoked the flames of division in American society.

During his two terms, it became commonplace and acceptable for left-oriented student groups to violently shut down peaceful public talks by political leaders or public commentators on American college campuses, who did not share the agitators’ beliefs.

Obama, the so-called great leader and great orator stood by silently when the rights of American students were trampled by these violent perps.

The responsibility for shutting down Trump’s talk at the University of Illinois is clearly the fault and responsibility of the perpetrators. And Obama, for his negligence throughout his two terms, should also bear responsibility, because these people who prefer violence to dialogue are his supporters—and his people.

Shame on Obama. Shame on these people. By their actions, they are trampling on the American Constitution.

Lastly, to his credit, Trump, when faced with a very difficult situation not of his doing, acted calmly and responsibly under pressure and made the right decision in cancelling his talk. Trump showed great grace under pressure.

And he came across as very cool, calm, contemplative, decisive and above all, presidential.

Aloha, Cruz and Rubio: Trump kills in Mississippi, Michigan and Hawaii primaries

Notwithstanding a full week of attacks from his rivals, and notwithstanding over $38 million worth of attack ads leveled against him, The Donald scored a huge win in Mississippi.

He also crushed Kasich, Cruz and Rubio in Michigan, America’s blue collar heartland. Then in the early morning, he also won in Obama’s supposed American birthplace, Hawaii. “Book em, Donald!”

In Mississippi, Trump beat Cruz among evangelicals (that’s Cruz’s firewall) and among those GOP voters who are anti-government, the latter by a two-to-one margin. In Michigan, Trump destroyed Kasich, his nearest opponent, and won the vast support of both men and women, GOP and Democrats, who have lost their jobs due to globalization and international trade deals.

In other words, the Reagan Democrats — those Democrats who crossed party lines to vote in Republican Ronald Reagan — are coming back to the GOP fold for the first time in decades, due to Donald Trump railing against free trade deals.

And folks, this is one of the major reasons for Trump’s unbelievable success to date. On every campaign stop, Trump has been hammering against free trade.

Contrary to the ignorant pundits in the mainstream media, Trump is winning, not because he is appealing to the base instincts of the American electorate. He is winning because he understands and is articulating the anger of millions of white and black Americans, who have lost their jobs and their homes to unfair international trade deals, which they believe have closed American factories and exported these jobs out of the United States.

Trump is winning on substance — on the economy and the economic injustice that a majority of Americans are experiencing.

Trump is also killing it in the media. He truly enjoys the spotlight and he is loving this campaign. And the more his critics attack him and blow millions of dollars in negative ads, the stronger he gets.

CNN analyst Van Jones has compared Trump to an X-Man villain, Sebastian Shaw: The harder you hit that character, the stronger he becomes.

In response to that political buffoon, Mittens Romney, questioning Trump’s business acumen, Trump flipped the proverbial finger at all his detractors. Trump taunted them by holding his election night victory news conference at the Trump National Golf Club in Jupiter, Florida — and catered it with Trump Wines, Trump Water and Trump Steaks.

Pure media genius!

“I don’t think Donald Trump can even stop Donald Trump”

We still haven’t seen the depths of stupidity to which Marco Rubio and the GOP elites (Mitch McConnell, Paul Ryan, Bill Kristol, Mitt Romney and Karl Rove) will descend as they cut off their noses, limbs and manhood to spite themselves and their own GOP party — all to stop The Donald.

At this stage of the political game, I don’t think Donald Trump can even stop Donald Trump and his date with destiny: A duel to the death with Hurricane Hillary, the Arkansas Hellcat.

Recently, political analyst Ed Kilgore of the New York magazine argued that it is not Trump and his massive ego that’s threatening a takeover of the GOP — it is Rubio, and the politically tone-deaf GOP establishment who support his failing campaign.

The more Rubio loses, the louder he argues that he is the true voice of the GOP party and its elites. But to date he has lost badly in almost every important GOP primary by huge margins to Trump and Cruz, and is even 15 percent behind in the most recent Florida poll — his own home state! So who is the con man now?

And yet, Rubio and the elites are threatening to take the fight to stop Trump to the convention floor.

In other words, against the obvious democratic will of the people, they want to stop Trump in some brokered, behind closed doors sleazy deal.

Can these so-called GOP experts and fat cat politicos be any more stupid?

These idiots have just handed Trump an even greater cause:

The popular will of the people against the slimy back room machinations of power-hungry Washington insiders!

Bernie Sanders is right: There is a revolution going on.

It is the revolution of the people against the political elites. Trump is the agent of this change. Establishment figures will be drowned under this tsunami of anger.

This includes Hillary, the archetypal Washington insider, because the majority of the American people don’t give a shite that Hillary will be the first female president.

You heard it here first. Trump is going to ride this wave of anger and revolution right into the Trump White House.