Category: Politics

“The Big Short” and Ontario government debt: A prediction for 2016

by Mitch Wolfe, posted in Politics

As I was sitting through Adam McKay’s brilliant film The Big Short for the third time, it suddenly hit me: Ontario is heading for a financial meltdown.

And thinking like the film’s fictional Mark Baum character (played by an excellent Steve Carell), I wondered: How can I profit from the stupidity and greed of the debt-ridden Wynne Liberal government?

To understand how The Big Short — a film about the 2008 collapse of the US housing and mortgage markets — relates to the Ontario of 2016 (the most heavily-indebted sub-national in the whole friggin’ world) a brief film review and analysis is required.

Unlike The Big Short, I cannot trot out naked actress Margot Robbie in a bubble bath to explain the film’s complexities, you will just have to bare — I mean, “bear” — with me.

The film, based upon the Michael Lewis book by the same name, was adapted and directed by former SNL writer Adam McKay.

McKay took on a complex, serious topic, riddled with arcane financial mumbo jumbo about “mortgage-backed securities” and “credit default swaps” and made these terms fun, sexy and even somewhat understandable using visual metaphors demonstrated by the likes of Anthony Bourdain and Selena Gomez.

McKay immediately establishes the context of the story — from the 1980s to the early 2000s — through a rapid fire montage of iconic political and pop culture imagery.

In other words: There was much going on in the world that average Americans (and even the experts) were blind to the fact that the booming economy was really just a house of cards built by greed, debt and more debt.

One who does understand all this is Christian Bale’s character, Dr. Michael Bury, an Asperger-affected neurosurgeon with a glass eye who becomes a hedge fund manager.

Bury foresaw the housing market collapse several years in advance, so he influenced Wall Street banks to create insurance contracts against the decline in value of mortgage bond portfolios, which Bury then bought. In betting against the housing and mortgage bond markets, Bury was betting against the American economy itself.

My other favorite character was the Mark Baum figure played by Steve Carell. I have never been a fan of Carell’s humour, but in this film, he nailed the role of the perpetually angry, distrustful but (believe it or not) principled hedge fund manager.

We learn that as a young man, Baum studied the Torah and Talmud, specifically trying to find internal contradictions in the words of God. This suspicious, inquisitive nature is in keeping with Baum’s later belief that banks were ripping off small and large businesses alike.

Given the opportunity to expose the bank’s stupidity, greed and malfeasance (and profiting from them at the same time), Baum bets against the banks and the crappy mortgage bond portfolios they’ve been selling to unsuspecting investors.

Baum and his wacky band of misfits are aided by Jared Vennett, played by Ryan Gosling as a spray-tanned, coiffed, douchey investment banker who wants to profit by selling Baum the same credit swap deals Bury had secured.

Gosling/Vennett often punctures the fourth wall to move the film along, explaining financial technicalities or offering comic asides about the businessmen he’s forced to deal with.

Underlying the craziness is a palpable sense of outrage and sadness. That’s fitting since, when the American economy inevitably went down the toilet, millions of average Americans lost their homes, savings and jobs.

And note — the warning signs we see in the film can also be seen in real life Ontario, right now:

Rising house and condo prices. Stagnant incomes. Rising mortgage rates. Rising personal debt. Rising provincial debt. Rising unemployment. Declining provincial revenues. And rating agencies paid by the province of Ontario to value its own government bonds. What rating agency is going to bite the hand that feeds it?

If I was a betting man, I would be “big short”-ing Ontario government bonds, because Ontario is in serious decline and heading for a major correction. Perhaps a financial bloodbath.

Is there a Dr. Bury in the house?

Thomas Pynchon’s “Inherent Vice” a Subversive Attack against the Obama Administration

by Mitch Wolfe, posted in Entertainment, Politics

Thomas Pynchon, one of America’s finest living authors, is a well-known chronicler of the tragicomic dark side of American society, culture, and politics. His very funny and provocative book, Inherent Vice, was published in 2009, during the first two years of the Obama Administration.

I argue that Inherent Vice, though set in the groovy sex, drugs, and rock and roll scene of 1970s Los Angeles, should be viewed as a subtle yet sharp critique of President Obama and his administration.

Remember Obama’s campaign promise of “Hope and Change”?

Obama promised to end polarization in America; to unite the blue and red states. To make America transcend the racial divide. And to restore people’s confidence in the American government by reining in law enforcement authorities and the national security agencies, whose powers have grown exponentially since 9/11.

Pynchon has written extensively on government control and interference in the private lives of Americans. In this post, suggest that within the first two years of the Obama Administration Pynchon realized Obama had no desire to regulate and restrict such government agencies. In response, Inherent Vice foreshadows Obama permitting American law enforcement and national security agencies to double down and spy upon the lives of millions of Americans via various modern technologies; especially members of those American groups who opposed Obama, his administration, and the Democratic Party.

Pynchon, through Inherent Vice, holds a mirror up to Obama and his administration for the apparent illegal actions of his government. The film, adapted for the screen and directed by Paul Thomas Anderson, faithfully captures Pynchon’s ingenious reworking of the classic private eye noir film. Its part Philip Marlowe, part Chinatown (1974), part Altman’s The Long Good-bye, with a pervasive whiff of weed a la The Big Lebowski.

But at its core, the film is all Pynchon. It casts a deeply realistic and paranoiac view of excessive government power, the government’s penchant for spying on its own people, and the system’s corruption.

The hero is Larry “Doc” Sportello (Joaquin Phoenix), a thirty-something laid back hippie. He’s a pot-smoking private investigator, a gumshoe (or, more appropriately, gum sandal) who lives and works in seedy south LA, near Gordita Beach. Doc is every man: he is a working stiff. He lives alone in an apartment near the beach and shares a simple office with a pill-dispensing doctor. Doc also wears a weird Afro and has huge, mutton-chop sideburns reminiscent of Neil Young in the 70s. Despite his appearance, Doc has a strong moral code. He is an individualist, street smart and resourceful. He is very loyal to friends and family, and often does his PI work pro bono. He is incorruptible. And he is very cynical and wary about the federal authorities.

To simplify a complex and many-layered plot, Doc is approached by an ex-girlfriend, Shasta. Once also a stoner chick, she has now apparently gone a bit upscale in order to search for her missing lover, a high-rolling multi-millionaire real estate mogul named Mickey Wolfmann. (No relation.) But then Shasta disappears and Doc embarks on a noble quest to find both Wolfmann and Shasta, for whom he still holds a torch. (Or, more appropriately, a doobie.) Doc suspects the pair may have been kidnapped by The Golden Fang, which may be a shady Asian drug syndicate or a front for coke-snorting, tax-evading LA dentists.

Throughout the film, viewers learn that Wolfmann, a lapsed Jew, conversely and perversely surrounds himself for protection with anti-Semitic, neo-Nazi, Aryan biker-types who may or may not also be involved with supplying arms to local black militant, Nation of Islam ex-cons. They, in turn, are being stalked by a gun-toting white American vigilante group. The vigilantes are working together with the neo-Nazis, and may or may not be outsourced, private contract killers for the federal government. (Got all that?)

To further complicate matters, Doc is also retained by a young mother, Hope, also a recovering heroin addict. Hope has a young daughter and believes her husband, Coy Harlingen (Owen Wilson), a drug addict and saxophonist allegedly dead due to overdose, may in fact still be alive and hiding in plain sight as an informant for the FBI … or some other shadowy federal  national security agency.

Notwithstanding this panoply of psychotic sociopath’s, the real villains of this film (according to Pynchon and Anderson), may be the Feds themselves. They are portrayed as the puppet masters pulling strings behind the scenes. They are the FBI and Homeland Security; strait-laced, clean-cut, God-fearing, black suited, crew-cut, Mormon types. And they appear to be behind the infiltration of civil rights, black, and other dissident groups; kidnappings of prominent businessmen; contract killings of LAPD detectives and leaders of non-conforming groups; and the apparent development, sale, and distribution of illegal street drugs.

Though Inherent Vice is, at face value, a wacky sex and drug-infused fiction, it hits dangerously close to home … especially to the White House and President Obama.

As citizens we have learned, through the revelations of former security analyst and contractor Edward Snowden, that the national security forces under Obama monitor our phone conversations, texts, and emails. And that’s not just Americans, but the phone conversations, texts, and emails of foreign leaders, too. Those we count as both friends and foes.

Under Obama, these same national security forces have infiltrated—through electronic wire-tapping and surveillance, and on-the-ground informants—many local American groups. That is, not only local Muslim groups but also Tea Party groups, Republican’s, media groups, and any other political and community groups opposed to Obama and the Democrats. Add to that the serious allegations that the independent Internal Revenue Service has been compromised by the Obama Administration into auditing, for political purposes, charitable and non-profit groups including the Tea Party, Republican’s, and other conservative and anti-Obama PAC groups. Their link? All seem opposed to Obama’s political agenda.

Note the very words of the title. “Inherent vice” is a legal concept which implies that the thing itself contains the seeds of its own destruction.

I highly recommend Pynchon’s Inherent Vice, both the book and film, because it reflects Pynchon’s prescient observation that the Obama Presidency, at its outset, contained the seeds of its own destruction.

How wonderfully ironic that Hollywood, one of Obama’s most solid bases, would in turn expose the inherent vice of his Presidency.

inhrent vice

 

Reviewing Toronto Mayor John Tory’s first flip-flopping year

by Mitch Wolfe, posted in Politics

When the Globe and Mail is scolding a politician for raising taxes, that’s something you notice.

Marcus Gee of The Globe just did that with Toronto Mayor John Tory.

Tory promised throughout the mayoral race that he would keep annual property tax increases at or below the inflation rate.

And sure enough, John Tory is now raising taxes. He shamelessly lied to the Toronto electorate. And he should be exposed as the lying political hack that he is.

But Tory was not finished. He further lied to the Toronto people by trying to spin this tax, not as a tax, but as a “special levy.” What a slimy weasel.

Next, Tory tried to lessen the pain by referring to this annual $13 per household as just the cost of one ticket to the movies. But as Gee notes, that’s not even accurate, either. The $13 amount isn’t just for the first year, but every year. An additional $13 added to the tax bill over five years equals $65, not $13. That is not just one trip the movies, Mr. Tory, you political reprobate.

Recall that Tory promised throughout the campaign that he would be as fiscally prudent as the former mayor Rob Ford, but without the circus. Tory lied about that as well.

Tory has permitted his own mayoral office budget to increase, far in excess of Rob Ford’s own mayoral budget. It’s already approaching David Miller-ian heights of excess and blatant self-aggrandizement.

You recall how sick and tired we were of Miller’s excesses. Well, John Tory is becoming the second coming of David Miller.

And like David Miller before him, John Tory will be ridden out of Toronto on a rail.

Speaking of our transit/rail system, Gee reminds us about Tory’s promise that his so-called “SmartTrack” would not cost the taxpayer one red cent. He said his multi-billion dollar above rail system would be funded, not by the taxpayers, but by the magic of tax increment financing. Or, as we Tory critics called it, “voodoo financing.”

As we predicted, tax increment financing is a sham. So Tory is forced to finally come clean and approach real taxpayers for real taxpayers money to pay for his transit follies.

Let’s look at another broken promise:

During the first mayoral debate against Rob Ford and Olivia Chow, Tory railed against Chow for suggesting that it was more prudent to retain public sector union garbage pickup east of Yonge Street.

Tory argued persuasively that private sector garbage pick up on the west side of the city had produced annual savings of $11 million, for a total savings in four years of $44 million. He vowed that if elected, he would usher in this more efficient and cheaper private sector garbage pick up in east Toronto as well.

Well, a whole year has passed. And as some of us predicted, the spineless Tory has caved to leftist pro-union interests on city council and in the civil service. Toronto’s east end is still stuck with the more costly and less efficient public sector garbage pickup system.

And who can forget Tory’s characteristic political stupidity and tone-deafness this first year?

Both the left and right on city council were staunchly opposed to Toronto wasting millions of dollars in a ridiculous Olympic bid, and most Toronto voters agreed. Yet Tory doggedly came up with a plan, one predominantly funded by the private sector.

And once again, Tory flipped and flopped. Dithered. Procrastinated. Failed to show clear-headed leadership.
Until he was forced to admit defeat, weeks after most citizens had moved on from this ridiculous debate.

Yes, Tory looks good in a Harry Rosen suit. Presumably he can tie his own shoelaces without the help of his myriad of highly paid handlers, consultants, advisers and spin doctors.

Yes, Tory appears to be a decent guy — so decent that other Toronto councilors run roughshod over the spineless mayor.

But John Tory still lacks good political instincts. And a spine. And he’s still is not ready to lead this great city.

Billy Bishop, Bombardier and Trudeau’s war on Canada’s middle class

by Mitch Wolfe, posted in Politics

Well, Trudeau Jr., even before officially becoming Canada’s new Prime Minister, was already reneging on his key platform promise to spend infrastructure money to help out Canada’s middle class.

It is old the bait and switch, sports fans.

And the Quebec voters — and all the idealistic, starry-eyed Canadians who voted for the Liberals thinking that their middle class lot in life will improve — fell for it, once again, hook, line and Liberal stinker politics.

Bowing to the worst form of NIMBYism (I call them “SWADEs”: Smug, White, Arrogant Downtown Elitists), the new Trudeau government kiboshed efforts by Toronto-based Porter Air and the majority of Toronto City Council to expand the already successful downtown Billy Bishop Toronto City Airport.

The plan was to extend both ends of the Billy Bishop runway by 168 metres, to allow Bombardier C Series airplanes to safely take off and land. That way, Porter Air could offer longer flights from Toronto to western Canada, the United States and even the Caribbean.

Currently, the Billy Bishop airport accommodates two million visitors to Toronto. Expansion would double that,, giving Toronto and the GTA a much needed economic shot in the arm.

And studies show that the continued success of Porter Air benefits all Canadian air travelers. Air Canada and West Jet are forced to lower their prices and improve their service in order to compete with Porter Air. The expansion of Billy Bishop would only increase this healthy competition.

Porter Air has agreed to buy 12 C Series Bombardier planes, with an option to buy 18 more. Such an order is worth $2.3 billion at 2013 list prices. However, this order is conditional on the three parties —  the federal government, the city of Toronto and Ports Toronto — approving the airport extension.

So this is where things get really interesting.

The Quebec provincial Liberal government has already committed $1 billion to Bombadier to assist with C Series plane development, and Quebec’s Economy Minister Jacques Daoust said he will ask the Trudeau government to match that amount.

(Recall the federal Liberals were decimated in Quebec in the 2011 federal election. In this recent election, the Trudeau Liberals secured 40 Quebec seats.)

It would be financially foolish for Trudeau to agree to a $1 billion lifeline to Bombadier, then killing Porter Air’s $2.3 billion order of Bombardier C Series planes.

On the other hand, for Trudeau to both kill the Porter Air Bombardier order and refused to extend a financial lifeline to Bombadier could be politically fatal for Trudeau and the Liberals in Quebec.

You can bet your sweet poutine that the Quebec Conservatives, Mulcair and his NDP fellows and the revived BQ would be all over Trudeau for lying to the Quebec people about creating jobs.

Just ask the BQ and the NDP. What goes up in one Quebec election in Quebec, comes crashing down the next.

The lefty loony lunatic Adam Vaughan, elected Liberal MP of Spadina-Fort York, and representing Toronto’s “SWADE” element, seems to be pulling the strings of the puppet Trudeau.

Recall that Trudeau never specifically campaigned on the platform of killing the Porter Air expansion.

But the out of control Vaughan is claiming such a public mandate.

And the stupid, clueless and weak Trudeau seems to going along, in effect telling middle class workers in Montreal and Toronto to go frack themselves.

Because at this stage, with Vaughan claiming an end to an expanded Porter Air, the Trudeau Liberals  do not seem disposed to help either Quebec Bombardier workers or Toronto citizens.

Remember: We conservatives warned you about these incompetent, anti-business, anti-private sector and anti-jobs Liberals.

For we rebels, we conservatives, it was a great ride while it lasted

by Mitch Wolfe, posted in Politics

I want to personally thank Prime Minister Stephen Harper — he will always be “Prime Minister Harper” — one of the most successful, transformational prime ministers in Canadian history, ranking up there with Sir John A, Laurier and Mackenzie King.

Once a populist, always a populist, Harper truly got his political mojo working in the wild west of Alberta. And through his pure force of will, determination and brilliant political instincts, he helped create the Reform Party and transformed a ragtag bag of right wingers, oil and gas wildcatters, hard-driving entrepreneurs, gun enthusiasts, socially conservative yahoos, free traders, free market libertarians, small “c” conservatives, anti-Eastern urban elitists,  hard-working, self-reliant, suburban new immigrants, and Eastern populists (like me) into a fighting and disciplined political force that won three hard-fought federal elections.

Even in 2015, despite almost 10 years in power, despite the collapse of the NDP, Harper led a party to nearly 32% of the vote and 99 solid seats in the new Parliament.

And clearly going against the national red tide, Harper and the Conservatives increased its Quebec representation. Max Bernier, you rock, mon ami!

As leader (contrary to Liberal and CBC propaganda), Harper did not have a hidden agenda. He stood by his political promises and never reopened the socially divisive issues of abortion and a woman’s freedom of choice. He strongly supported same sex marriage and sexual equality. And the Conservative Party and the country were better for Harper standing up for these principles and values.

Ironically, in this last campaign, it was Harper, not any of the other leaders, who stood up loudly and courageously for our etched-in-stone Canadian values of the equality of men and women, when he publicly proclaimed that a foreign culture (whose values require women to veil themselves so that men will not be motivated to rape them, or whose values are anti-gay) are values that have no place in Canada and should never be encouraged or permitted.

Harper also kept Canada on a firm fiscal path. When the international recession hit in 2009, contrary to orthodox right wing thinking, Harper did the right thing and tacked to the centre and left, stimulating the economy by running several years of consecutive deficits.

Then, when the economy turned around, Harper and his then Finance Minister Flaherty, did the heavy and unpopular lifting of reducing government programs and brought the country back into fiscal balance, while keeping personal and corporate taxes at historic lows.

The easy and politically popular thing to do would have been to borrow billions of dollars, increase debt and deficits and kick the problem down the field for another leader and another generation, like Pierre Trudeau did in the 70s — and David Peterson and Bob Rae did in Ontario in the 90s.

Instead, Harper chose the much more difficult approach of saying no to many free-loading special interest groups, who wanted to line their pockets.

He also said “no” to many provincial premiers and many Canadians, who preferred getting federal government handouts to doing the hard and necessary work of building up their own provincial businesses and revenues and reining in their own programs and reducing their deficits.

Yes, that took discipline, toughness and determination and cold-heartedness. But those were the right things to do.

But in politics, as in life, “no good deed goes unpunished.”

So the Canadian people punished Harper for being a tough, firm, son of bitch, who did not kowtow to biased liberal elites in downtown Toronto or Montreal or their biased elitist media interests.

Some of the Canadian people also punished Harper for not kowtowing to the many anti-Semitic, anti-Israel member countries which form the United Nations.

Some of the Canadian people also punished Harper for not kowtowing to the job-destroying/cap and trade/carbon tax/green environment international movement.

But like Harper, I am a true blue populist. And the people are always right.

Apparently, some of the same people who stuck by and voted for Rob and Doug Ford, this time some of these people also voted for Justin Trudeau.

I stand whole-heartedly by the people’s choice.

I am a populist, unrepentant contrarian, a rebel-rousing, anti-elitist — and as such a very proud Canadian.

Thank you, Prime Minister Harper, for your incredible service to this great land of ours.

We true blue Canadian Conservatives shall never forget you.

Gagnier-gate: Three strikes and space cadet Trudeau is out

by Mitch Wolfe, posted in Politics

When even the pro-Trudeau and heavily-biased CBC turns on Trudeau, you know that it is curtains for the clueless space cadet.

I predict Trudeau and the Liberals are in free fall in Quebec, without a parachute.

Dan Gagnier, the now-former Liberal campaign co-chair, was acting for both the Liberals and the hated oil pipeline line giant, TransCanada Pipelines, since the spring of 2015. TransCanada is hated in certain parts of Quebec for its dreaded West-East oil pipeline into Quebec. (Strike one.)

Gagnier’s double dealing between Liberals and TransCanada, playing both ends, smacks of the Liberal sponsorship scandal in Quebec (Strike two).

Trudeau is lying when he stated  that he just learned of Gagnier’s double-dealing. In the spring, the Liberals knew Gagnier was advising TransCanada while Trudeau’s campaign co-chair. (Strike three.)

Three strikes, and you are out of there, for your bald-faced lying in public. Nice knowing you, buddy.

My Quebec Liberal friends morbidly want to know whether or not it’s too late to replace the fallen space cadet with the real astronaut, Marc Garneau. I think that space ship has sailed.

Because of GagnierGate, my prediction is that Mulcair will make a move on Trudeau in Quebec and may catch him, election day.

If Trudeau loses in Papineau, he’s gone. Out of politics. Back to being a spoiled unemployed trust fund baby.

And the Liberals will feast on his sorry, skinny carcass.

Poll: Harper leads, within sight of majority (plus or minus 2.5 martinis)

by Mitch Wolfe, posted in Politics

In a recent poll by Wolfe Analytics (a local polling company created, commissioned and retained exclusively for me personally), the Conservatives are at 38%, the Liberals 33%, the NDP 24%, and the remaining left wing nuts and nation-destroying separatists are split between the Green Party and the Bloc Quebecois.

When these numbers are extrapolated over all the seats at play in this election, the Tories should win a decisive majority, the Liberals will form the official opposition, and “Angry and Stoppin Tom” Mulcair will soon be dropped like a hot poutine and hereafter known as “Tom Who?”

This new polling group, Wolfe Analytics, eschewed the more commonplace modern polling methods, i.e.,those annoying interactive robo calls.

Instead, we assembled a highly inebriated polling sample, up close and personal, in two upscale Toronto bars and one downscale pub.

Since intensive and comprehensive one-on-one interviews were de rigueur, the polling sample was admittedly a little thin, but still very representative of the greater Canadian electorate from Victoria to Peggy’s Cove.

Here are some representative results of the polling sample:

One of the first persons interviewed was Andie, a blonde 30-something inner suburban housewife in North Toronto, who will be voting for Harper because of his tough fiscal policies.

Next came a 30-something Asian woman, also married with child, living in downtown Toronto. Surprisingly, she was also voting for Harper because of his strong fiscal policies, thinks Trudeau is an intellectual lightweight, and identified herself as a proud member of “Ford Nation.”

I next interviewed a Latin American-born 50-something mother and her 30-something daughter. Both will be voting for Harper and ignoring the featherweight pugilist Justin.

I then spent a good deal of time at another restaurant/bar, Kasa Moto, where I interviewed a whole range of men and women. Among this group, Harper won the approval of the majority of the men voting, while Trudeau and Mulcair split the “hot chick” vote fairly evenly.

At the Four Seasons d/bar, I interviewed a group of 20-something hip downtown urban dudes and cool young women. Shockingly, the vote split among this group: Harper 2, Trudeau 2 and Mulcair 1.

Clearly, Harper and the Conservatives are resonating mostly with men, both urban, suburban and rural in Ontario, along with those in have-not Atlantic Eastern provinces. He is also popular with men and women alike in Quebec, the prairie provinces and BC.

Trudeau’s numbers reflect a strong urban base, with pockets of strong Liberal support in downtown Toronto, Montreal,  in the Atlantic provinces and in urban BC.

This unscientific and subjective poll may not be bang on mathematically accurate, but it does provide an interesting snapshot of a downtown Toronto urban/suburban group, who, surprisingly, are strongly in the Harper camp.

How Thomas Mulcair Lost Quebec Through Political Correctness, Arrogance and Ignorance

by Mitch Wolfe, posted in Politics

At the start of this election,  Thomas Mulcair, leader of the New Democratic Party, thought he had his Quebec base all sewed up. Buttoned down. Solid.

But his front runner status in Quebec was suspect.

What happened to the seemingly indestructible Orange Crush in Quebec?

Well, Mulcair and his brain trust and most of the political pundits, (except pour moi) took their eyes off the always bouncing Quebec political ball.
Let me explain:

In the 2011 federal election, NDP leader Jack Layton and his Quebec lieutenant Mulcair supported the controversial policy of Quebecers separating from Canada and breaking up Canada, provided a 50% plus 1 vote was obtained in a Quebec referendum on a question, that may or may not be clear.

This policy taken from the separatist BQ ( Bloc Quebecois, a separatist/federal party, oxymoronic much?) playbook, catapulted the NDP in Quebec, to win an extraordinary 59 seats in Quebec with about 43% of the popular vote in the 2011 federal election.  And thus become, overall in the entire Canada,  the official opposition party, to Stephen Harper’s majority Conservative Party in Ottawa, the federal capital of Canada.

So at the outset of the 2015,  Mulcair thought that this similar position together with his very family friendly Federal childcare proposal, ( based in large part on the Quebec model), his progressive, anti-corporate platform to raise the taxes on big corporations, and his pro environment and anti-oil and gas policies, would further solidify NDP support in Quebec. And with his solid Quebec base intact, permit Mulcair and his party to expand in the rest of Canada, and win the federal election and form a federal NDP government for the first time in Canadian history.

Mulcair forgot the golden rule of Quebec politics

But Mulcair forgot the golden rule of Quebec politics. Quebecers don’t vote with their pocketbook, like those in the rest of Canada, they vote with the heart and what’s in their guts. And outside Montreal, oblivious to the downtown NDP intellectual elites,- Francophones, Anglophones and Allophones were questioning once again, who is a true Quebecer and what are Quebec’s true values.  What are the values for which Quebecers must stand and fight?

After decades of turmoil, the consensus among those three above-named groups, was that Quebec was first and foremost a French-speaking province. If any Quebecer wanted to work in the Quebec public service or properly obtain services from the Quebec government or even provide services or products to the Quebec government, that person or persons must deal exclusively in French. It is not a matter of personal choice.

That’s a fact, Jacques!

Secondly, after centuries, Quebec, to a large extent, in the 1960s and going forward, finally liberated itself from the shackles of Catholicism and emerged as a secular state. The Catholic Church, or any church, temple or mosque was no longer welcome in the legislature, the boardrooms, the factories or the bedrooms of the Quebec state.

Thirdly, as to emphasize the above second point, the provincial Liberal government in the province of Quebec,  headed by Premier Couillard, introduced a bill this summer,  which stipulated that employees of public bodies must “exercise their function with their face uncovered,” and in addition persons receiving services from personnel must have their face uncovered. “

This bill has been met in Quebec with overwhelmingly approval by all the major parties and is supported by a vast majority of the Quebec electorate.

In other words, the wearing of a niqab or burka was to be banned. Because another value essential to the Quebec identity was the equality of men and women.

And the majority Liberal government in Quebec and the opposition parties in the Quebec government, representing the vast majority of Quebecers, believe that the wearing of a niqab or burka reflect the values of a foreign culture that is contrary to essential Quebec values and to Quebec’s identity.

And in Quebec, it is always about Quebec’s identity.

To the majority Quebec government and in fact the majority of the elected representatives in the Quebec legislature and to the vast majority of Quebecers, the wearing of a niqab or burqa is not a religious expression or a personal choice, that takes precedent over the essential values and character of the Quebec identity.

Just as the speaking of English to or in the Quebec public service is not a personal choice that takes precedent over the essential French character of Quebec.

Ironically, Prime Minister Harper, an Anglophone, born in Ontario and educated in Alberta, instinctively understood what the wearing of the niqab and burka represented to the Quebec people and how the wearing of these face-covering garments is an existential threat to Quebec’s identity.

Mulcair and his lefty downtown Montreal elites,  similar to those clueless, narrow-minded, ignorant, arrogant downtown Annex-based Toronto lefties, thought what was good enough for their intellectual elitist friends in Montreal’s Plateau and on CBC’s Radio-Canada, was good enough for the rest of Quebec.

So when Harper seized the moment, and doubled down and proposed to enact federal legislation banning the niqab, similar to what Quebec Liberal Premier Couillard had proposed, that old master political genius, lit a fire in the Quebec hinterlands,  that has spread as Tory political wildfire, engulfing and destroying vulnerable NDP strongholds in its wake.

I predict the haughty and arrogant Mulcair and his minions will go down to horrible defeat in Quebec and in the rest of Canada on October 19 and thus will be reduced to third party status in Canada, behind the victorious Conservative and the resurgent federal Liberal party .

Because paradoxically, the Bible said it best.  Book of Proverbs, 16:18:
“Pride goeth before destruction, and an haughty spirit before a fall.”

Mulcair “forgot the first rule of Quebec politics”

by Mitch Wolfe, posted in Politics

At the start of his election, Thomas Mulcair thought he had his Quebec base all sewed up. Buttoned down. Solid.

So what happened to the seemingly indestructible NDP “Orange Crush” in Quebec?

Well, Mulcair, his brain trust and most political pundits took their eyes off the always bouncing Quebec political ball.

In the 2011 election, NDP leader Jack Layton and his Quebec lieutenant Thomas Mulcair supported the controversial policy of Quebeckers being able to separate from Canada as long as a referendum on the issue received 50% + one vote.

This policy, taken from the separatist BQ playbook, catapulted the NDP in Quebec to an extraordinary 59 seats, and about 43% of the popular vote.

So at the outset of the 2015 election, Mulcair assumed that a similar position; his very family friendly federal childcare proposal (based in large part on the Quebec model); his progressive vow to raise the taxes on big corporations; and his pro environment and anti-oil and gas policies, would all further solidify NDP support in Quebec.

But Mulcair forgot the golden rule of Quebec politics.

Quebecers don’t vote with their pocketbook, like those in the rest of Canada. They vote with the heart. And outside of Montreal, Quebec’s Francophones, Anglophones and Allophones alike — all of them oblivious to the downtown NDP intellectual elites — were questioning once again:

Who is a true Quebecker? What are Quebec’s true values?

After decades of turmoil, the consensus among those three above-named groups was that Quebec was first and foremost a French-speaking province.

If any Quebecker wanted to work in or receive public services, that person must deal in French. It is not a matter of personal choice.

That’s a fact, Jacques!

Secondly, after centuries, Quebec, finally liberated itself from the shackles of Catholicism in the 1960s and emerged as a secular state. The Catholic Church — or any church, temple or mosque — was no longer welcome in the legislature, the boardrooms, the factories or the bedrooms of the province.

Thirdly, the provincial Liberal government, headed by Premier Couillard, introduced a bill this summer that stipulated that public employees must “exercise their function with their face uncovered,” and persons receiving those services must do likewise.

This bill has the overwhelmingly support of all the major parties and the electorate.

The niqab and the burqa were effectively banned. Because another value essential to the Quebec identity was the equality of men and women.

Most Quebeckers believe these Muslim garments are not a religious expression or a personal choice, but that they reflect the values of a foreign culture that is contrary to essential Quebec values and to Quebec’s identity.

And in Quebec, it is always about Quebec’s identity.

Ironically, Prime Minister Harper, an Anglophone born in Ontario and educated in Alberta, instinctively understood what the niqab and burqa represent to the Quebec people.

Mulcair and his lefty downtown Montreal elites, however, thought what was good enough for them was good enough for the rest of Quebec.

So when Harper seized the moment, and proposed to enact federal legislation banning the niqab for those working in the federal public service and for those dealing with the public service in person, a surge ofConservative support destroyed vulnerable NDP strongholds in its wake.  

I predict the haughty and arrogant Mulcair and his minions will go down to horrible defeat in Quebec onOctober 19.

Because paradoxically, the Bible said it best in the Book of Proverbs: “Pride goeth before destruction, and an haughty spirit before a fall.”

(Not bad for a third generation Anglophone Quebec Jew, eh?)

My dinner with Rob Ford

by Mitch Wolfe, posted in Politics

Last night, at the last minute, I showed up at a Toronto restaurant, and guess who was in attendance? Our former mayor, the incomparable Rob Ford.

He was having a bite to eat with a friend of mine.

I approached Rob’s table and my friend motioned for me to sit down.

Under the circumstances, Rob looked great. He was smiling. He was funny. He was mellow.

He had lost some weight and you could just tell he was getting back into fighting political trim.

Rob recalled that for a certain period during his mayoralty, I had written a series of articles in the Huffington Post explaining the political phenomenon that was, and still is, “Ford Nation.”

I’d explained why Rob Ford was that rare politician and public figure, one who inspired devotion and loyalty from a truly diverse multicultural population.

Ford Nation consists of men and women from their teens to their 90s. Cutting across all races, religions and ethnicities and socio-economic groups. Predominantly, working class and middle income South Asians, Asians, blacks, Filipinos, Persians, Russians, Vietnamese, Italians, Greeks, Muslims and of course, Jewish folks.

(And, yeah, a smattering of angry old white men and women.)

Mostly, from the GTA heartland: Etobicoke, North York, Scarborough, York and East York, but not exclusively so.

I reminded Rob that then and now, he still had the best political instincts in Toronto, if not in all of Canada.

Rob Ford would have stopped that stupid Olympics gravy train in its tracks. And not dithered back and forth, hemming and hawing, like the current mayor John Tory.

Remember Ford’s familiar rallying cries?

“Subways, subway, subways”

“The war on the car”

“Stop the gravy train”

“Respect the taxpayer”

These are not empty political slogans, but reflect a philosophy that still resonates with a large number of  GTA residents, both in the suburbs and in downtown Toronto.

And still drives the agenda in Toronto City Hall.

Rob Ford and John Tory both campaigned on saving millions of dollars of taxpayer money by privatizing garbage services east of Yonge Street.

By now, Rob Ford, if he was mayor, would have honored that campaign promise to the Toronto people. To date, Mayor Tory, as I predicted, has caved to the self-entitled unions and the highly conflicted Toronto downtown elitist leftist councilors.

Tory has failed to make the tough fiscal choices that Mayor Ford made during the very successful early years of his mayoralty.

Every day, Ford is getting stronger and stronger.

Last night, Rob Ford showed signs that he still has that fire in his belly.

In two more years, the complacent Tory and his downtown elitist supporters, better watch their back.

Because I think Tory is going to have quite a fight on his hands.

FORD MORE YEARS!